THE HOUSE EDGE

What the house knows. Occasionally.

Issue #11 | October 5, 2026 Covers September 22 to October 4. Macau’s Golden Week holiday runs to October 7, so the holiday data is partial.

THE LEAD

• A federal judge ruled on October 2 that Kalshi and Coinbase can keep offering sports contracts in Illinois without a state licence. It is a win for prediction-market operators. The judge found the contracts are likely swaps, which puts them under the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rather than state gambling regulators. Two federal appeals courts ruled the other way in August and September.
• The Justice Department told a federal court on September 30 that event contracts can be swaps. It is prosecuting a US Army soldier who allegedly used classified information to make about $410,000 on Polymarket contracts tied to US military action in Venezuela. Its commodities-fraud charges stand only if the contracts are swaps. The DOJ said the sports cases raise different questions. Still, the DOJ and the CFTC now both argue in court that event contracts can fall under federal law.
• People Inc. withdrew its $48.30-a-share offer for MGM on September 23. Chairman Barry Diller said the “mix” was not coming together and named no specific obstacle. Truist’s analyst pointed to the regulatory complexity of buying a casino company. MGM fell 11.0% d/d and is now reported to be weighing a bid for People Inc., its largest shareholder.
• Macau’s September gaming revenue was MOP18.06bn, down 1.2% y/y and 8% to 10% below JP Morgan’s and Seaport’s forecasts. Wealthy players gambled less. Brokers point to China’s drive to tax its residents’ wealth abroad, widened in July to offshore trusts, and to a weaker Chinese economy.
• The UK Treasury is weighing a doubling of the tax on gaming machines, to 40%, in the October 28 Budget. It follows the November 2025 Budget, which raised online casino duty to 40% from 21%. Rank and Entain, the most exposed listed companies, fell to 52-week lows.

THE TAPE

Share price change to the October 2, 2026 close, in local currency. Window: since September 21. MTD: since September 30. YTD: since December 31, 2025. LTM: since October 2, 2025.

Gaming share price changes to October 2, 2026, by group: window, MTD, YTD and LTM

• The largest falls over the two weeks: Better Collective down 36.6% (Brazil), MGM 21.3% (its buyer withdrew), DraftKings 15.4% and Flutter 13.9% (pressure from prediction markets, and Brazil for Flutter).
• This year’s three biggest gainers all have bids: evoke is up 91.9% YTD on Bally’s Intralot’s 52p offer, Evolution 27.4% on Candle Lake’s tender offer, and Caesars 26.8% on Fertitta’s $31.00 offer. Flutter is down 65.2% YTD.

THE BOOK

US iGaming, Sports Betting & Prediction Markets

Illinois: a win for Kalshi and Coinbase

• Who it favours: Kalshi, Coinbase and other prediction-market operators. On October 2 Judge Martha Pacold stopped Illinois from enforcing its gambling laws against their sports contracts while the case continues.
• Who moved first: Illinois. Its Gaming Board ordered Kalshi, Robinhood and Crypto.com to stop in April 2025. A law in force since July 1, 2026 requires a $15m sportsbook licence and a fee of 1.75% to 3.5% on every wager. Coinbase, the CFTC and Kalshi then sued to stop Illinois enforcing those rules.
• The ruling: the contracts are likely swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), the federal law that gives the CFTC sole authority over swaps and futures. “Swaps are swaps whether they are used to gamble,” she wrote. Illinois cannot, for now, require a licence, bring criminal charges or apply its 21-and-over rule.
• Still open: whether the companies owe the per-wager fee, and whether the ruling covers combination contracts (defined below).
• Which court: a district court, so the ruling binds only this case. An appeal would go to the Seventh Circuit, which covers Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin. A Wisconsin judge ruled against the CFTC in July, and that case is already on appeal there.

In short: Kalshi and Coinbase can sell sports contracts in Illinois for now without a licence, and the state cannot prosecute them.

The appeals courts are split

A federal appeals court, or circuit, is one of 13 regional courts. Its ruling binds every federal court in its region.

Court	Date	Who sued	Outcome
Third Circuit (New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware)	Apr 6	Kalshi, to stop New Jersey enforcing its gambling law	For Kalshi, 2-1: likely swaps, federal law overrides state law
Ninth Circuit (nine western states, including Nevada and California)	Aug 28	Kalshi, against Nevada	For the state, 3-0: not swaps, Nevada can regulate them
Ninth Circuit, tribal case	Sep 16	Tribes, against Kalshi	For the tribes: casino gambling on tribal land
Sixth Circuit (Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky, Tennessee)	Sep 25	Kalshi, against Ohio and Tennessee	For the states, unanimous: not swaps
District court, Illinois	Oct 2	Kalshi, Coinbase and the CFTC	For the operators: likely swaps, enforcement blocked
District courts in Iowa, Connecticut, Utah, Michigan, Maryland	Aug-Sep	Kalshi or the state	For the states
Supreme Court	Pending	Three cert petitions, requests asking the court to hear a case	Kalshi’s reply to New Jersey due Nov 9

• The Sixth Circuit held that a swap must be tied to an event that is financial in nature, and a football game is not. On Kalshi’s complaint that following every state’s rules costs too much: “expensive does not mean impossible.”

In short: one appeals court has sided with Kalshi and two with the states, covering 13 states. Splits like this make Supreme Court review more likely.

The CFTC and DOJ back federal control

• September 28: the CFTC sent two draft rules to the White House budget office, the last review before publication. One would define event contracts as swaps. The other would bar casino-style products and take effect at once.
• September 30: in US v. Van Dyke, in federal court in Manhattan, the DOJ argued the contracts “qualify as swaps because they are inherently economic.” Argument is set for October 7.
• September 25: Kalshi asked the Ninth and Fourth Circuits to wait for the new CFTC rule. It argued their rulings “should not rest on a regulation that will be replaced before the end of the year.”
• September 24: Kalshi blocked customers on three California tribal reservations, its first voluntary block. Tribal gambling falls under a separate federal law, the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act, so a Supreme Court win on swaps would not settle the tribes’ claims.

In short: Washington wants these contracts treated as federal financial products. If the CFTC rule lands first, the courts will be ruling on a new regulation as well as the statute.

Volume: combination contracts drive the growth

A combination contract, or combo, is one contract that pays only if every chosen outcome happens: the exchange version of a sportsbook parlay. A customer might buy one contract that pays if the Chiefs win, the quarterback throws two touchdowns and the game goes over 45 points. On an exchange, outside market makers take the other side and the exchange charges a fee.

Sports volume on US exchanges, 30 days to September 29 (Aldrin Research):

	Volume	Change vs prior 30 days	Kalshi share
Combos	$41.7bn	more than doubled	84%
Straight sports contracts	$26.5bn	+23%	57%
Total	$68.2bn	+72%	73%

• Combos are 70% of Kalshi’s sports volume.
• Kalshi ends its volume incentives on October 13, 14 months early, after a Wall Street Journal report of about $5bn of near-identical ether trades on the exchange.
• Combos cost customers more on Kalshi. Citizens analyst Jordan Bender estimates that on NFL week 4 a customer staking $100 on a combo could expect to lose about $26.50 on Kalshi, against about $23 on average at FanDuel and DraftKings. On single bets the three cost about the same, about $4.30 to $4.50 per $100.

Valuation: Kalshi’s proposed price is above Flutter and DraftKings combined

Company	Last closed round	Round in talks at October 4
Kalshi	$22bn, May 2026 ($1bn, led by Coatue)	About $40bn ($1bn). Sequoia and Wellington in talks to co-lead. Not closed
Polymarket	$15bn, April 2026	$21bn post-money ($1bn), led by 1789 Capital. Close not announced
Novig	$500m, February 2026 ($75m, led by Pantera)	Up to $2bn. Not closed

Bloomberg describes Polymarket’s $21bn as post-money. Sources do not say whether Kalshi’s and Novig’s figures are pre- or post-money. Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, owns about 22% of Polymarket’s outstanding shares.

	Market value, Oct 2	Net debt, Jun 30	Enterprise value
Flutter (FanDuel)	$13.0bn	$10.5bn	$23.5bn
DraftKings	$9.2bn	$0.9bn	$10.1bn
Combined	$22.2bn	$11.4bn	$33.6bn

• Kalshi’s proposed $40bn is about a fifth more than Flutter and DraftKings combined, debt included.
• Flutter’s net debt is 4.3 times its EBITDA. Put simply, it owes more than four years of operating earnings. DraftKings owes little after cash.

The sportsbooks run prediction products too

The $33.6bn buys the two largest US sportsbooks, large online casino businesses, Flutter’s international brands, and two prediction-market products of their own:

	DraftKings Predictions	FanDuel Predicts
Launched	December 2025	December 22, 2025, nationwide January 2026
Customers	Over 600,000 in 2026 to the Q2 call	Not disclosed
Volume	$11bn annualised in July, up from $2.3bn in April. Of the $11bn, $3.6bn came from customers and $7.4bn from market makers	Not disclosed
States live	48, with sports contracts in 18	50 for financial contracts, sports in 18
Owns the exchange?	Yes. DKeX, from its $84.8m purchase of Railbird, live since June 26	No. A joint venture with CME Group, which owns 51%. Sports contracts are to move to Crypto.com’s exchange
Share of US exchange sports and combo volume	2.7%, 30 days to September 29	Not reported
Revenue	Not disclosed. DraftKings plans $200m to $300m of spending on it in 2026	Flutter calls it “not material”

Handle and exchange volume count different things

Handle is the total amount bet at a sportsbook. Exchange volume counts every contract at its $1 face value. They are not the same dollar. Revenue is a third measure: what the operator keeps after paying winners. It swings with hold, so it says little about size.

As reported:

US sportsbook handle against prediction-market volume as reported, full year 2025 and 12 months to June 2026

• FanDuel’s US handle was $53.8bn in 2025 and $52.8bn in the 12 months to June 2026. DraftKings’ was $53.6bn in 2025, after which it stopped reporting handle on its own.
• Kalshi’s volume rose to $118.9bn from $24.1bn over the same periods, and reached $252.5bn in the 12 months to September (The Block).

Why the reported numbers mislead:

Counted the same way:

Face value in the 12 months to June 2026: Kalshi $118.9bn, DraftKings about $106bn, FanDuel about $101bn, Polymarket $79.1bn

• FanDuel’s $52.8bn of handle is about $101bn at face value, and DraftKings’ about $106bn (estimates: handle times 1.91). Kalshi’s volume was $118.9bn. Parlays pay far more than $1.91 per $1 staked, so the sportsbook figures are likely higher.

In short: counted the same way, Kalshi was roughly the size of FanDuel or DraftKings in the 12 months to June. It is growing far faster: at face value its volume reached $252.5bn in the 12 months to September.

Sportsbooks: September’s drop was hold

August was different. Online sportsbooks in four large states:

State	Handle, y/y	Revenue, y/y	Hold, Aug 2026	Hold, Aug 2025
New York	-15.3%	-5.5%	9.73%	8.72%
New Jersey	-9.0%	-25.0%	8.39%	10.17%
Pennsylvania	-2.7%	-22.5%	10.21%	12.82%
Michigan	-2.5%	-29.8%	10.47%	14.54%

New Jersey figures include retail betting. The regulator does not report online handle separately.

• Pennsylvania and Michigan: handle roughly flat, hold down 2.6 to 4.1 percentage points. Hold impacted results.
• New York: hold rose and handle fell 15.3% y/y. Customers bet less. Part of that is the calendar: the NFL opened on September 9 this year, against September 4 in 2025.
• H2 Gambling Capital estimates prediction markets have taken about $2bn of handle from licensed sportsbooks, and forecasts NFL-season handle of $31.4bn, down 0.8% y/y, the first decline on record.

Other legal risk

• A proposed class action in Massachusetts seeks damages from DraftKings, alleging it used artificial intelligence to target losing and addiction-prone customers with promotions.
• The House Oversight Committee widened its investigation on September 29 to Crypto.com, Hyperliquid and PredictIt’s operator. Responses are due October 13.
• MGM chief executive Bill Hornbuckle said at G2E that Nevada regulators told MGM: “If you stretch out and do this, it’s going to impact your licensing.” That helps explain why Nevada-licensed operators have stayed out of prediction markets.

So what?

• What changed: an Illinois judge sided with Kalshi, the appeals courts are split two to one against it, and the CFTC’s rule defining event contracts as swaps is at the last stage of review.
• What was priced: Flutter and DraftKings, which run the two largest US sportsbooks and their own prediction products, are worth less together than Kalshi’s proposed private price.
• What to watch: whether the CFTC publishes its rule before the Supreme Court decides whether to hear a case, and whether Kalshi’s volume holds after its incentives end on October 13.

THE STRIP

Las Vegas

People Inc. drops its MGM offer

• People Inc. (formerly IAC) offered $48.30 a share for MGM on June 1 and withdrew on September 23. Diller: “We didn’t feel the mix was coming together in the way we had hoped.” Nevada’s Gaming Commission had questioned the bid in July.
• People Inc. keeps 26.5% of MGM, with no standstill agreement. MGM closed October 2 at $30.48. The withdrawn offer was 58% above that price.
• The Wall Street Journal reported on September 24 that MGM is discussing a bid for People Inc., which has a market value of about $2.7bn. HighSage Ventures, a 6.6% holder of People Inc., backs a deal “at a fair price”.

Caesars: how Fertitta pays for it

Fertitta Entertainment is paying $31.00 a share in cash, about $6.3bn for the equity. Including Caesars’ net debt at June 30, the price is about $17.2bn, or about 7.6 times management’s 2027 forecast of $2.25bn of EBITDA after rent to its landlords, VICI and GLPI (estimate from public figures).

Where the money comes from:

Source	Amount
Equity, including shares rolled over by existing holders	At least $2.7bn
New revolving credit line	$2.0bn, of which $750m can be drawn at closing
Term loan A-1	$500m
Term loan B-2	$1.675bn
364-day bridge loan	$750m
Bridge loan to be replaced by bonds	$1.675bn
New bank debt committed (10 banks)	$6.6bn, up to $5.35bn drawn at closing

• Caesars’ existing $11.8bn of debt stays in place. The new money pays the price and fees, and refinances Caesars’ term loan A and revolver.
• Leverage: total debt would rise to about $15.7bn to $16.4bn, about 7.0 to 7.3 times management’s 2027 EBITDA after rent, against about 5.2 times now. Counting leases as debt, about 7.4 to 7.6 times, against 6.3 times now (estimates from public figures). CreditSights estimated 7.1 to 8.4 times on a lease-adjusted net basis in March, before the deal was signed.
• Ratings: S&P rates Caesars B+, stable. Moody’s and S&P rate its secured debt Ba3 and BB-, and its unsecured debt B3 and B- (per CreditSights). No agency action since the deal was signed appears in public sources. Caesars’ proxy says two agencies’ preliminary assessments pointed to a one-notch downgrade. Fitch does not rate Caesars.
• Risks the filings flag: in April the Caesars board was told Fertitta “had experienced difficulty obtaining financing.” Fertitta Entertainment has about $5bn of its own debt (Forbes). $6.0bn of Caesars’ debt pays floating rates. The $750m bridge falls due within a year of closing.
• Timing: shareholders approved the deal on September 22, with 65.4% of shares outstanding voting for. The Federal Trade Commission issued a second request on September 14, meaning it wants more information before clearing the deal. If the deal has not closed by June 26, 2027, Fertitta pays $0.00715 a share for each extra day. The stock trades 4.4% below the offer.

In short: Fertitta is putting in at least $2.7bn and borrowing up to $5.35bn more. If the deal closes, Caesars’ debt would equal about seven years of its after-rent operating earnings.

Nevada, August

• Gaming revenue: statewide $1.27bn, up 3.1% y/y. Strip $684.1m, up 0.7% y/y, helped by baccarat, up 34.1% y/y.
• Strip revenue per available room: $117.93, down 15.8% y/y.
• Strip hotel occupancy: 77.0%, down 4.0 percentage points y/y.

So what?

• What changed: MGM lost its buyer. Caesars’ buyer lined up $6.6bn of bank debt for a deal that takes leverage to about seven times after-rent EBITDA.
• What to watch: rating-agency actions on Caesars’ new debt, whether MGM bids for People Inc., and Nevada’s September figures in late October.

THE ORIENT

Macau & Asia

September gaming revenue: MOP18.06bn

Month, 2026	GGR	Change
June	MOP18.52bn	-12.1% y/y
July	MOP20.26bn	-8.4% y/y
August	MOP21.89bn	-1.2% y/y
September	MOP18.06bn	-1.2% y/y, -17.5% m/m

• The fourth straight y/y decline, and 18% below September 2019. It matched Citi’s reduced forecast of MOP18.0bn (Citi, via Inside Asian Gaming).

Key drivers: China’s tax drive on the wealthy, and a weaker economy

• What happened: in the first 20 days of September, GGR averaged about MOP610m a day, down 14% m/m. The normal August-to-September drop is about 5% (UBS, via Focus Gaming News).
• China is taxing its residents’ money abroad. Chinese tax residents owe tax on worldwide income. Since early 2025, tax bureaus have used data from foreign banks to chase it. In January 2026 the tax administration told residents to review overseas income back to 2022. It collected about RMB13bn of back tax on overseas income in January to May (Yicai). Some reviews reach back to 2000 (Financial Times, August).
• Offshore trusts were added on July 24. New rules tax them at 20% on gains when assets move in and 20% on trust income. October 22 ends a 90-day window to settle past amounts without a penalty. After that, unpaid tax carries a surcharge of 0.05% a day, and trust income stays taxable every year.
• Pay and share awards are in view too. Tax bureaus have audited the tax on employee share awards, such as restricted stock units, since 2023, going back to 2019 (KPMG). Residents working abroad owe China’s rate, up to 45%, minus local tax. Bank of America said in August that enforcement “could eventually expand to overseas employment income.” No 2026 collection on either has been reported.
• The link to spending: Bloomberg tied the campaign in August to a fall of more than 10% in July China sales at the 25 biggest luxury brands, and to weaker high-roller play in Macau. Seaport says the enforcement is hurting wealthy individuals with overseas assets (Seaport, via Asia Gaming Brief).
• The economy: Seaport also blames weaker Chinese economic conditions. JP Morgan wrote: “It’s unclear whether the September softness stemmed from the recent China tax crackdown” (both via Inside Asian Gaming).

In short: Beijing is taxing its wealthy citizens’ money abroad, and the drive has no end date. October 22 ends only a grace period. The tax continues. If the drive is the main cause of Macau’s weak premium play, the drag will likely last.

Broker	Q4 2026	Full year 2026
JP Morgan	-6% y/y	+1% y/y, MOP249bn
Seaport	-5% y/y	+2.3% y/y
CLSA	-0.9% y/y	not restated

• Golden Week, early read: arrivals in the first four days averaged 187,747 a day, against about 142,500 a day over the eight-day 2025 holiday. Sands China said room rates were “broadly in line” with past years. No revenue figures are out yet, so it is too early to read.
• Korea: Paradise grew September casino revenue 38% y/y, but drop, the cash exchanged for chips at casino tables, rose only 6.6% y/y, so most of the gain was hold. Korean demand is roughly flat.

So what?

• What changed: premium play fell faster than the season explains, and China’s tax drive on residents’ overseas wealth widened to offshore trusts.
• What was priced: Macau stocks fell about 5% on average over the two weeks, less than the US Las Vegas, Digital and European groups. Sands China and MGM China still closed at 52-week lows.
• What to watch: October GGR on November 1. JP Morgan expects MOP22.6bn, down 6% y/y. Watch whether premium play recovers once the October 22 grace period ends.

THE OLD WORLD

Europe, plus Brazil

UK: the Treasury weighs a second tax rise

The November 2025 Budget raised online gambling taxes. The October 28, 2026 Budget, Chancellor John Healey’s first, may now raise the tax on gaming machines in shops and casinos.

UK gambling duties now:

Duty	Rate	Change
Remote gaming duty (online casino)	40%	Up from 21% on April 1, 2026
General betting duty, remote (excluding horseracing)	15%	Rises to 25% on April 1, 2027
Machine games duty, standard rate	20%	Unchanged since 2015. Lower rate 5%, higher rate 25%
Bingo duty	0%	Abolished April 1, 2026

What is being discussed:

• The Times, September 7: Treasury officials are modelling higher machine games duty. A government source said tax rises are “definitely on the table again.”
• The Guardian, October 2: Healey is “reportedly considering” raising the standard rate to 40% from 20%.
• The source of the idea: a Social Market Foundation report in June proposed 40% on Category B machines, the higher-stake machines in betting shops and casinos. It estimated £275m to £458m a year of extra revenue.
• The Treasury says it will set out decisions at fiscal events. As of October 4 there was no report of a further rise in online rates.

Who pays, if machine games duty goes to 40% (Deutsche Bank, September 23):

Company	Extra duty a year	Share of earnings	UK share of revenue
Rank	About £35m, after mitigation	About 44% of 2028 operating profit	About 95%
Entain	About £100m, before mitigation	About 10% of 2027 EBITDA, 20% of its 2028 free cash flow target	41% (46% of EBITDA)
Flutter	Under $20m	Under 1% of group EBITDA	About a fifth (estimate)
evoke	No estimate		About two-thirds

• Deutsche Bank assumes operators offset about 30% of the gross cost.
• Share prices, September 4 to October 2: Rank fell 28%, Entain 22%, Flutter 25% and Playtech 9%. Rank fell 8.3% d/d on September 8, the day after The Times report. Entain and Flutter were also hit by Brazil.
• evoke, about two-thirds UK, trades at 42.6p, 18% below Bally’s Intralot’s agreed 52p offer.
• The industry: Entain’s chief executive wrote to the Prime Minister on September 11, citing industry estimates of up to 1,470 shop closures and 15,900 job losses. Rank says about a third of its venues would close. Betfred says 495 of its shops are at risk.

In short: after raising online taxes last year, the Treasury is now looking at shops and casinos. Rank is the most exposed listed company. Flutter would barely notice.

Brazil: which listed names are exposed

Brazil banned online betting on September 25. Federal licences expire October 25, and the decree lapses on November 23 unless Congress approves it. Brazil’s Supreme Court is reviewing challenges.

• Flutter: not material to earnings, about $20m of 2026 profit, under 1% of group EBITDA (estimate from public figures). It does carry about $821m of Brazil goodwill and other intangibles, about 6% of its market value, which may have to be written down.
• Better Collective: Brazil is 12% of revenue. It cut 2026 guidance and fell 33% d/d on September 28.
• Allwyn: owns 36.75% of Kaizen Gaming, owner of Betano, whose largest market is Brazil. Allwyn says its 37% margin guidance “no longer applies” if the ban lasts.
• Evolution: Latin America is 8.6% of revenue, and Brazil is the largest part.

Briefs

• UK Gambling Commission: new gaming machine standards will cost £20.8m to £41.6m a year for staff alerts alone, phased in from March 2027. Licence fees rose 25% on October 1.
• Malta: a restructured gaming tax took effect on October 1. Tax now follows the player’s location.

So what?

• What changed: the UK government is looking at a second gambling tax rise in two Budgets, this time on gaming machines.
• What was priced: Rank closed at a 52-week low and Entain within 1% of one. Rank is down 28% since September 4, just before the first report.
• What to watch: the Budget on October 28, and whether it touches online rates or the April 2027 rise in remote betting duty.

THE LOCAL

US Regional

• Las Vegas locals, August: Boulder Strip gaming win up 17.4% y/y. Downtown down 3.0% y/y. Reno up 15.7% y/y.
• Regional operators fell over the two weeks: Penn down 8.4%, Boyd down 7.3% and Churchill Downs down 7.2%.
• Gaming and Leisure Properties hit a 52-week low of $38.28, a dividend yield of 8.5%.

THE PROJECTS

Global Greenfield & Development Watch

• Wynn Al Marjan, UAE: $5.7bn, opening September 2027. Chief executive Craig Billings confirmed the date at G2E.
• MGM Osaka, Japan: about $10bn, opening 2030. MGM expects about $2bn of annual cash flow. Hornbuckle said he would be “absolutely shocked” not to have a five-year head start on any rival.
• Resorts World New York: Fitch cut its 2026 profit forecast 3%, to $208m from $215m, because of start-up costs. 400 table games are due by January 2027.
• Thailand: no change. The casino bill was withdrawn from parliament in July 2025. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul opposes casinos. His party won the most seats in the February 2026 election, and parliament re-elected him on March 19. No bill, hearing or timetable has appeared this year.

Correction: issues of The House Edge in June reported that Thailand’s governing coalition had agreed a 17% gaming tax and up to three licences, with a parliamentary vote in late 2026. Trade and official sources do not support that. The 17% rate comes from the 2024 draft bill.

OTHER

Sweepstakes & Skill Games

• Pennsylvania’s deadline to remove skill games is October 13. A skill game is a slot-like machine in bars and shops, sold as a game of skill to avoid gaming licences. Seizures and criminal charges can follow from October 14. The machines must be physically removed.

THE SHIFT

C-suite and key Las Vegas and Macau moves

• Flutter: Dan Taylor became group chief executive on October 1, succeeding Peter Jackson. The Brazil write-down decision is his first.

THE NUMBER

RMB13bn. The back tax China collected on residents’ overseas income in January to May 2026, before its new rules on offshore trusts. October 22 closes only a penalty-free window for trusts, so the drive continues. If Macau’s premium play stays weak after October 22 while mass play holds up, the tax drive is the likely cause. If premium recovers, September was a one-off rush to raise cash.

THE CALENDAR

Date	Event
Oct 6-8	Broker estimates of Golden Week GGR
Oct 7	Golden Week ends. Argument in US v. Van Dyke on whether event contracts are swaps
Oct 7-8	Nevada Gaming Control Board and Commission meet
Oct 9	Oral argument, CFTC v Kentucky. Michigan deadline for Robinhood customers
Oct 13	Pennsylvania skill-game deadline. Kalshi volume incentives end. House Oversight responses due
Oct 14-15	Robinhood and Crypto.com responses due at the Supreme Court
Oct 18	Missouri cease-and-desist compliance deadline
Oct 22	China offshore trusts: penalty-free settlement window closes
Oct 25	Brazil federal betting licences expire. Brazil presidential runoff
Oct 27	Caesars third-quarter results
Oct 28	UK Budget: machine games duty decision. VICI third-quarter results
Oct 29	Proposed injunction wording due in Illinois
Late Oct	Nevada September gaming revenue
Nov 1	Macau October GGR
Nov 9	Kalshi’s Supreme Court reply to New Jersey
Nov 23	Brazil’s decree lapses unless Congress approves it
Any day	CFTC rules published. Rating actions on Caesars. Illinois fee ruling. Fourth Circuit ruling

Sources

• Courts and agencies: Holland & Knight (Third Circuit, Apr 7). Crypto Briefing (Ninth Circuit, Aug 28). SBC Americas (Sixth Circuit, Sep 25). DeFi Rate (Oct 2), Crypto Times (Oct 3) and The PM Pulse #059 (Oct 5) on Illinois. Capitol News Illinois. Covers (Illinois orders, Apr 2025). US Department of Justice (Apr 23). Casino.org (Oct 2). Decrypt, The Block and CoinDesk (CFTC rules, Sep 28-30). Bransfield prediction-market litigation tracker.
• Volume, pricing and valuations: InGame (Sep 30). Aldrin Research. RotoWire (Citizens, Oct 5). The Block (prediction-market volume, monthly). DeFi Rate (Kalshi daily volume). Gambling Insider (combo stakes, from Dune). Covers and Cointelegraph citing Reuters (Kalshi, Sep 29). The Block (Kalshi Series F, May). Bloomberg Government (Polymarket, Aug 31). Fortune (Novig, Feb 18). Front Office Sports (Novig, Sep 30). Intercontinental Exchange 10-Q (Jul 30).
• Flutter and DraftKings: Flutter 10-K and quarterly results (handle, Q2 results Aug 5). DraftKings 10-K, quarterly results and Q2 2026 10-Q (Aug 6). DraftKings Q2 call transcript (Motley Fool). DeFi Rate (DraftKings Predictions volume). CME Group (FanDuel Predicts launch, Dec 22, 2025). CME 10-K.
• Sportsbooks: New York State Gaming Commission. New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement (Sep 16). Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board (Sep 17). Michigan Gaming Control Board (Sep 18). H2 Gambling Capital (Sep 9). Law360 and Boston Globe (DraftKings suit, Sep 30-Oct 1). Legal Sports Report (G2E, Sep 30).
• MGM and People Inc.: People Inc. release and 8-K (Sep 23-24). SEC Schedule 13D filings by People Inc. (Sep 24) and HighSage Ventures (Sep 29). CDC Gaming (Jul 23, Sep 23-24). Bloomberg (Sep 24).
• Caesars: Caesars definitive proxy (DEFM14A, Aug 26), 8-K filings (May 28, Sep 17 and Sep 23), Q2 2026 results and 10-Q (Jul 28). CreditSights (Mar 12). Cbonds (S&P rating, Sep 2025). Forbes (Jun 1). CDC Gaming (May 28, Jul 8).
• Nevada: Nevada Gaming Control Board (Sep 30). LVCVA executive summary (Sep 30).
• China tax enforcement: Xinhua (Jan 16, 2026). Yicai (Jun 10, 2026). Morgan Lewis (Jul 28, 2026). Private Banker International citing the Financial Times (Aug 6, 2026). Reuters (Bank of America, Aug 20, 2026). Bloomberg (luxury sales, Aug 21, 2026). China Briefing (Oct 2, 2026). KPMG China (May 2024). Asia Gaming Brief (Seaport, Oct 4, 2026).
• Macau and Asia: DICJ. Inside Asian Gaming (Oct 2, Citi, JP Morgan and Seaport). Focus Gaming News (UBS, Sep 23). Gambling.com (June and July GGR, Aug 4). GGRAsia (CLSA, Sep 30, and Golden Week, Oct 5). Inside Asian Gaming (Sands China occupancy, Oct 2, and Korea, Oct 2-4).
• UK: gov.uk (gambling duty changes, Nov 26, 2025, and machine games duty rates). HM Treasury (Budget date, Jul 31). The Times via CDC Gaming and NEXT.io (Sep 7). The Guardian (Oct 2). iGaming Business (Social Market Foundation, Jul 1. Entain letter, Sep 16. Deutsche Bank, Sep 23). Casino.com (Sep 25). European Gaming (weekly share prices, Sep 7 to Oct 5). MarketBeat (Rank, Sep 8). Entain 2025 results. Flutter 2025 results. Gambling.com (evoke, Aug 14). Investing.com (Rank, Aug 13). UK Gambling Commission (Oct 1). Malta Gaming Authority (Oct 1).
• Brazil: iGaming Business (Sep 28). Flutter and Entain releases (Sep 28). CNN (election, Oct 4).
• Thailand: Asia Gaming Brief (Feb 24 and Mar 19, 2026). iGaming Business (Sep 2025 and Mar 19, 2026). Inside Asian Gaming (Jan 18, 2026).
• Share prices: Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, StockAnalysis, HKEX, FT and Naver, closes to October 2, 2026.